The August 8, 2006 FOMC meeting

Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady As Slowdown Outweighs Inflation
Quick overview of the pro-hike bias of the statement, of probable Fed views of the economic outlook (including of evidence against their view), and of pundit's and analysts' opinions.

As Data Point to Slowdown, Housing Market May Land Harder Than Economists Predict
Economists See Greater Case For Fed Pause After Jobs Data
A pre-hike look at the housing and economic data. "Euphoria [about the housing market] could turn into abject pessimism very quickly." Economists mostly agree that the jobs data is disappointing and pointed to a pause.

Four Investors' Fairy Tales...and Five Ugly Realities About the Coming Severe U.S. Recession.
Criticizes positive spins on the outlook (headed for a mild slowdown; the Fed to the rescue; the rest of the world to the rescue through "decoupling" and strong external growth; orderly rebalancing of the external accounts) and presents five predictions (high estimated probability of default; the Fed's incapacity to save the economy or the stock market; the world's dependence of the US and the high estimated probablity of a hard dollar landing).

Fed Sees Inflation Rise as Fleeting
An overview of the view that inflation is being caused by volatile energy prices rather than an overheating economy. But since oil prices don't show any sign of moderating, a recession may be needed to reduce inflation pressures.

Market Puts Bet Behind Bernanke
This suggests that the bond market trusts Bernanke, namely by letting long rates fall below 5%.